ABSTRACT
Since the start of the still ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, there have been many modeling efforts to assess several issues of importance to public health. In this work, we review the theory behind some important mathematical models that have been used to answer questions raised by the development of the pandemic. We start revisiting the basic properties of simple Kermack-McKendrick type models. Then, we discuss extensions of such models and important epidemiological quantities applied to investigate the role of heterogeneity in disease transmission e.g. mixing functions and superspreading events, the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions in the control of the pandemic, vaccine deployment, herd-immunity, viral evolution and the possibility of vaccine escape. From the perspective of mathematical epidemiology, we highlight the important properties, findings, and, of course, deficiencies, that all these models have.
ABSTRACT
November 2020 received a string of encouraging results from leading vaccine developers raising hopes for the imminent availability of an effective and safe vaccine against the SARS-CoV-2. In the present work, we discuss the theoretical impact of introducing a vaccine across a range of scenarios. In particular, we investigate how vaccination coverage, efficacy and delivery time affect the control of the transmission dynamics in comparison to mobility restrictions. The analysis is based on a metapopulation epidemic model structured by risk. We perform a global sensitivity analysis using the Sobol method. Our analysis suggest that the reduction of mobility among patches plays a significant role in the mitigation of the disease close to the effect of immunization coverage of 30% achieved in four months. Moreover, for an immunization coverage between 20% and 50% achieved in the first half of 2021 with a vaccine efficacy between 70% and 95%, the percentage reduction in the total number of SARS-CoV-2 infections is between 30% and 50% by the end of 2021 in comparison with the no vaccination scenario.
ABSTRACT
In this paper we develop a compartmental epidemic model to study the transmission dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic outbreak, with Mexico as a practical example. In particular, we evaluate the theoretical impact of plausible control interventions such as home quarantine, social distancing, cautious behavior and other self-imposed measures. We also investigate the impact of environmental cleaning and disinfection, and government-imposed isolation of infected individuals. We use a Bayesian approach and officially published data to estimate some of the model parameters, including the basic reproduction number. Our findings suggest that social distancing and quarantine are the winning strategies to reduce the impact of the outbreak. Environmental cleaning can also be relevant, but its cost and effort required to bring the maximum of the outbreak under control indicate that its cost-efficacy is low.